“Ideology, politics and journalism, which luxuriate in failure, are impotent in the face of hope and joy.” – P. J. O’Rourke

It might be a off base to talk about new dreams for chess in 2004 when so many of our resolutions and wishes for 2003 went so resoundingly unanswered. Maybe we should be good environmentalists and recycle them for this year. That’s a bit depressing, so let’s give optimism a try instead. (Speaking of optimism, one reader’s request for Santa didn’t make it in last month. Jay was either asking for birth control or he completely misunderstood that Nimzovitch was talking about prophylaXIS.)

It’s always easy to start the year with a smile thanks to the annual Corus tournament in Wijk aan Zee, Holland. The event starting tomorrow is the 66th edition and yet again boasts one of the most incredible fields any fan could wish for. Even better news came this week when it was announced that the event has been guaranteed by sponsors and organizers through 2010! By then we might even have a unified world champion.

This year’s line-up of 14 is full of top-ten names as usual, but the straws that stir the pea soup are the wild men further down on the rating list. I. Sokolov, Akopian, Bologan, Zhong, and van Wely are all proven giant-killers with sharp styles and no fear. It’s a safe bet that at least one of them will finish among the top five and upset the big boys.

Last year Vishy Anand won clear first at Corus with a modest +4 undefeated score. He’s back to defend his title and this time he won’t be chased by Judit Polgar, who took clear second last year. The Indian must again be considered the favorite. This is the lazy writer’s pick, although there is some science involved. Anand’s category is only matched by Kramnik and Kasparov. He tends to score better against non-top-ten competitors than does Kramnik and Kasparov isn’t playing. In smaller, more elite fields like Dortmund and Linares +2 can win, but at Corus you’ve got to force the issue sometimes and risk to win more games, something Anand does very well.

Anand’s main competition should come from world number two Vladimir Kramnik, who is unlikely to repeat his dismal +1 score from last year. Kramnik lost three games in last year’s event, more than he loses in most years. “Should” doesn’t always cut it, however. Kramnik’s immense talent has been muted in recent years and he hasn’t shown the ability (and/or desire) to put up big numbers. That leaves the door open for someone on a hot streak, someone like Russian champion Peter Svidler.

Svidler is the hot new #4 on the rating list, the latest to fly closest to the eternal sun that is the KKA Triangle. His points weren’t accumulated in supertournaments so it will be interesting to see how well his stellar form holds up against the top tenners. The voters in the ChessNinja message board poll to pick the winner actually favored Svidler almost two-to-one over Kramnik and almost equal with Anand. Svidler hasn’t played many classical games against other 2700s in the past few years, but if the Grunfeld holds up he should be there at the end.

Alexei Shirov is next down the rating list. The Spanish-Latvian is always dangerous and if score were based only on wins he would be in great shape. In both 2001 and 2003 he had the same number of victories as the winner in Wijk aan Zee. Shirov’s problem is the loss column. He had three losses in both events while the winners, Kasparov and Anand, had zero. Regardless, his exciting games will always make him a fan favorite.

Then we come to Veselin Topalov, the last-minute replacement for Alexander Morozevich, who bowed out with the flu. Topalov, like many of the participants, hasn’t played much classical chess in the past six months so it’s hard to judge form. For what it’s worth, his rapid results were excellent. His tirelessly combative attitude and sharp play will partially satisfy the many Moro Madness fans disappointed about the absence of their hero. The fable about the late stand-in invitee winning may just come true. Topalov finished ahead of Anand at the Hotel Bali event in Spain in November.

Peter Leko has only played in one event since Dortmund back in August and it was a poor performance at the Cap D’Agde Rapid. Linares showed that he could sharpen his play enough to win an event like this one. If he’s been working as hard as he usually does I’d predict a top-three finish for Hungary’s favorite son unless the rust is too thick.

Like Leko, England’s Mickey Adams had a poor showing at Cap D’Agde, not making the second stage. He kept in shape by playing in the Euro Internet Blitz event at Playchess.com, losing in the final to Bacrot. On the other hand, if playing blitz at Playchess did much for your OTB form you and I would be playing in Wijk aan Zee.

When you notice how many of the top players played so little classical chess in 2003 you have to wonder if they all just decided to take extended vacations. Or is there really such a shortage of classical events? There have been quite a few strong rapid tournaments, and rapid chess is good work if you can get it. Either the players need to lower their expectations and play in more humble events for more humble fees, or we need to get used to seeing more blunderful rapid chess.

Believe it or not, the second half of the field starts with the winner of the 2002 edition of Wijk aan Zee. Evgeny Bareev is rated higher now than when he won two years ago, but that field didn’t include this year’s four top-rated players. He had another excellent, if uncharacteristically unsteady, performance here last year. The only problem for him this year is that it’s mathematically impossible for everyone to have a good tournament.

The last player on our checklist is demi-legend Jan Timman. In the past few years his presence in Wijk aan Zee has been largely honorary, which is a painful thing to see. His annual battle with van Wely has become the local highlight. Timman has a total of three wins in the past three events. (I lost count of the losses.) Here’s hoping for a renaissance for him this year and Timman winning Wijk aan Zee in 2010! He must be disappointed about Morozevich bailing out. He has a +3 record against the Russian.

First we heard about a possible Russian championship “super-final” that could see the top Russians actually playing in the capital. Now we’re hearing about a Petrosian memorial supertournament trying to get off the ground in Moscow this year. Quick, try to remember the last classical supertournament in Moscow. I’m waiting… The Botvinnik Memorial was a match, sorry. And I’m not sure we should count the 2001 FIDE WC KO since that used the FIDE semi-rapid 90’+30” time control. Think back before that.

Speaking of Russians, Alexander Grischuk hit the top ten and has been rewarded with no scheduled events for the first half of 2004. If one of the most exciting and talented young players in the world can’t get a game there must be something to the lack of events. Maybe Kasparov should lose to him, it worked for Radjabov. Or perhaps there is something about the conditions players want. (Clearly one affects the other. Supply demand, etc.) I’d like to hear from any organizers who have been turned down by top players because they couldn’t meet their financial demands. I doubt this is an epidemic.

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Mig Greengard runs the chess training and message board site ChessNinja.com, writes a monthly column on ChessBase software, and his New Year's resolution is 1600x1200. E-mail Mig